As the Bitcoin and crypto market continues to be locked in a tight range, investors are eagerly eyeing the upcoming week for potential catalysts that could break the current stalemate. Several macroeconomic events, along with a significant technical signal for Bitcoin and crypto, are poised to influence the market’s direction.
Here are the five must-watch events that crypto enthusiasts and investors should keep a close eye on in the week ahead:
#1 FOMC And Interest Rate Decision By The Fed (Wednesday, July 26)
The interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, at 02:00 pm EST, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy press conference at 02:30 pm EST.
The most crucial event of the week is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are anticipating a 25 basis points rate hike with a 99.8% probability. However, the rate hike is highly expected to be the last in this cycle. For this reason, the focus will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech.
The discussions and statements made by Powell during the press conference will be closely monitored by investors, as they may provide valuable insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy and hints if the hiking cycle is done. Therefore, the FOMC press conference could be the catalyst for a break in either direction. Also, investors should be careful of pre-FOMC volatility.
#2 Q2 2023 US GDP Data (Thursday, July 27)
The second event to keep an eye on is the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2023. This indicator will provide a comprehensive overview of the country’s economic performance during that period.
A strong GDP figure may boost market sentiment and have implications for the cryptocurrency market, while weaker-than-expected results could raise concerns and potentially lead to increased volatility. In the first quarter of 2023, GDP was still at 2.0%. For Q2, the consensus is 1.7%.
#3 PCE Inflation Data (Friday, July 28)
At 8:30 am EST, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, will be published. An renowned rise of PCE inflation data could be a major concern for financial markets, and any surprises to the downside is likely to impact the financial markets negatively.
As with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, the main focus will be on the core inflation data. In June, core PCE stood at 4.6%. For July, a further drop to 4.2% is expected.
#4 Earnings Season In The US
The reporting season in the US reaches its peak during this week, with significant tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet reporting their quarterly figures on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Facebook’s parent company, Meta, will announce its results.
These earnings reports have the potential to sway the performance of the Nasdaq100 and, in turn, influence the crypto market. Positive corporate earnings could uplift investor sentiment, while disappointing figures may lead to cautiousness in the crypto space.
#5 Bitcoin And Crypto Bollinger Bands
Amidst the macro economic events, it’s crucial not to overlook technical indicators within the Bitcoin and crypto market. The renowned analyst Josh Olszewicz has pointed out that Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands have reached historically tight levels. Bollinger Bands are volatility indicators, and when they contract significantly, it often signals an imminent price move.
“If you think the $BTC market feels dead, weekly bollinger bands would agree. This is officially the tightest bollinger bands have ever been on the weekly timeframe,” says renowned analyst Josh Olszewicz.
Also, Ethereum’s one week Bollinger Bands are the tightest in its entire history. “TOTAL Crypto Market Cap 1W Bollinger Bands are also the tightest in the history of the chart,” as Bitcoinist chief analyst Tony “The Bull” remarked via Twitter.
As the crypto market experiences this tight range, many are anticipating a potential break in either direction, making it essential to stay vigilant for sudden price movements.
At press time, Bitcoin still hovered at the lower end of the 4-week range, trading at $29,859.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com