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Bitcoin is consolidating around the $115,000 level as markets brace for tomorrow’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. After weeks of volatility, the market has entered a cautious holding phase, with traders and institutions alike waiting for clarity on the Fed’s next steps. The decision to cut interest rates will set the tone for risk assets, but investors are equally focused on whether quantitative easing policies will return to the discussion. Both outcomes could significantly reshape the macroeconomic outlook and dictate Bitcoin’s next move.
Top analyst Darkfost highlighted an important on-chain development that adds further context to the current consolidation. According to his data, Short-Term Holder (STH) whales, who came under pressure during the small correction at the beginning of September, are now back in unrealized profit. That correction temporarily pushed STH whales into loss territory, testing their conviction. However, history shows that similar pullbacks have been short-lived and well-defended, often paving the way for Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory.
The convergence of macroeconomic decisions and improving onchain health sets the stage for a decisive week. With the $115K range acting as a pivot, the Fed’s announcement could be the catalyst that determines Bitcoin’s breakout direction.
Short-Term Holders Defend Critical Levels
According to Darkfost, the small correction at the beginning of September placed Short-Term Holders (STH) under notable pressure, as it directly challenged their unrealized profit zone. This critical area, which fluctuates around $108,000–$109,000, has become an important battleground for bulls and bears. For now, STH whales continue to defend this zone successfully, preventing losses from widening and providing stability to the broader market structure.
Historical precedent supports this resilience. Previous corrections of similar nature, which briefly pushed STH whales into unrealized losses, were short-lived and well-defended. Each time, Bitcoin managed to stabilize and then resume its bullish trajectory shortly after. This pattern suggests that the current defense could again act as a springboard, reinforcing confidence among traders who view the $108K–$109K range as a structural line of defense.
However, the broader context cannot be ignored. This week is shaping up to be pivotal for Bitcoin and risk assets, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. While technical and on-chain signals suggest underlying strength, macroeconomic forces could introduce sharp volatility. Darkfost notes that tomorrow’s decision will provide much-needed clarity, potentially setting the tone for whether Bitcoin extends its rally or faces a deeper consolidation phase.
Bitcoin Consolidates Around Key Level
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady around $115,482, showing resilience as the market braces for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. On the daily chart, BTC is consolidating near a critical level after recovering from its early-September lows. Price is hovering just above the 50-day moving average ($114,355), which now acts as immediate support, while the 100-day average ($112,782) provides an additional safety net. The 200-day average at $102,810 remains far below, reinforcing the broader bullish structure despite short-term uncertainty.
Resistance lies in the $116,000–$117,000 zone, where BTC has faced repeated rejections in recent weeks. A breakout above this range would likely open the door for a retest of the $123,217 resistance, a level that capped the last major rally. On the downside, failure to defend the 50-day moving average could invite a pullback toward $113,000 or even $112,000.
BTC is consolidating within a tightening range, awaiting macroeconomic clarity. If the Fed delivers the anticipated rate cut without shocking the market, Bitcoin could gain momentum for another push higher. Until then, sideways action and increased volatility remain the base case.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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Sebastian’s journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian’s contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian’s passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian’s journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.
